The Scale of China's Rise
4x
China's GDP growth since 2000
$1.2T → $18.5T
26,000 km
High-speed rail built
More than rest of world combined
50%
Global steel production
US produces 4%
120+
Countries with China as #1 trade partner
Was 65 in 2005
The Manufacturing Shift
In 2000, the US made 28% of global manufactured goods. China made 7%. Today those numbers have flipped. China now produces 30%, the US about 16%. This happened in one generation.
30%
China's global manufacturing share
7x
More STEM PhDs than US
Annually graduated
1.1B
Internet users in China
More than US total population
80%
Solar panels from China
Global production
60%
Rare earth processing
Critical for EVs, missiles
Military & Taiwan
US Defense Budget
$886B
Official 2024
The Gap
3x
But narrowing fast
China Defense
$350-450B
Estimated actual
370
Ships in Chinese navy
World's largest by number
750+
US overseas bases
China has ~5
300+
Nuclear silos built
In just 2 years
24M
People in Taiwan
Democracy since 1990s
The Taiwan Stakes
TSMC in Taiwan makes 92% of the world's advanced chips. Every AI model, every iPhone, every modern weapon depends on them. A war that damages these fabs would crash the global economy — estimated at $10+ trillion in losses.
$10T+
Potential global cost of Taiwan war
The Tech Decoupling
$550B+
US tariffs on Chinese goods
Covering majority of trade
200+
Chinese suppliers in an iPhone
Decoupling is complicated
100%
Tariff on Chinese EVs
Reinforces market exclusion
0
Advanced chips China can make
Without banned equipment
$52B
CHIPS Act funding
US reshoring push
5-10 yrs
To rebuild supply chains
If even possible
The Demographics Time Bomb
China 2024
1.41B
Population peaked 2022
The Collapse
-50%
By 2100 (UN scenario)
China 2100
~685M
Under current trends
1.0
China fertility rate
Half of replacement level
400M
Births prevented
One-child policy (1980-2015)
35M
More men than women
Gender imbalance
1M+
US immigrants/year
China: ~0
Growing Old Before Growing Rich
By 2050, China will have 500 million people over 60 — more than the entire US population. The workers who would support China's 2040 economy needed to be born 20 years ago. This math is locked in.
500M
Chinese over 60 by 2050